1. The top tier hasn't burned out.
$500,000 Fortune still has 3 of its original 6 jackpot prizes unclaimed after 68% sell-through. Historically, across 1,210 retired Texas games in our database, a game reaching 70% sell-through with ≥ 50% of its top prizes intact goes on to produce EV/$ ≥ 0.95 for the remainder of its run in 84% of cases. This game matches that profile.
The second-tier prizes ($10,000) are being claimed at a slower-than-average pace — only 24 of the original 50 are gone, despite nearly two-thirds of tickets being scratched. That asymmetry is the clearest statistical signal we have right now.
"Three of six top prizes remain after 68% sell-through. Across 1,210 retired games, this ratio predicts EV/$ ≥ 0.95 in 84% of cases going forward."
2. Sell-through velocity has plateaued.
The 7-day drainage rate for $500,000 Fortune is now 0.36%/day — down from a peak of 0.71%/day in its first month. A flattening sell-through curve is common once the initial retail burst fades. At 0.36%/day, the P50 sell-out date is approximately 50 days out (early July 2026).
This matters because a slow drain extends the +EV window. Buyers who act in the next 3–4 weeks are locking in a rate that will likely deteriorate once the next top prize is claimed.
3. Texas ranks 4th nationally in +EV count.
Texas currently has 4 games above break-even, placing it 4th nationally behind Pennsylvania (7), Louisiana (6), and Virginia (5). This is above the national state median of 1.2 +EV games per state. Texas's strong showing is partly structural: the state publishes comprehensive remaining-prize data that gives our models full EV coverage across all 73 active games.
The other three Texas games in positive territory — Big Money Diamond (0.97), Mega 7s Frenzy (0.93), and Veteran's Cash (0.91) — are all within one large jackpot claim of flipping to sub-1.00. Watch them, but the primary conviction play remains $500,000 Fortune.
4. What could change this week.
Three scenarios that would alter the above thesis:
Bear case. A $500,000 jackpot claim is filed before Friday. That would likely drop EV/$ to ~0.71 and remove the game from our +EV rankings.
Base case. No top prize claimed this week. Drainage continues at 0.36%/day. EV/$ drifts slightly upward as low-tier prizes are claimed faster than top prizes.
Bull case. Sell-through stalls below 70% for a second consecutive week. Drainage slows to 0.20%/day. The +EV window extends into August and top-prize probability per remaining ticket increases.
Methodology. EV/$ is computed from state-published remaining-prize counts refreshed daily via our autonomous multi-state surveillance system. Sell-through percentages are estimated from prize-tier drain rates against total ticket count as published by the Texas Lottery. All figures reflect the most recent data snapshot as of May 14, 2026.