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TIRAGE GLOSSARY
By Tirage Analysis Desk · · 3 min · 🌟 featured-snippet target
Definition
Expected value per dollar (EV/$) is the average return you can mathematically expect from each dollar spent on a scratch-off ticket, based on the prizes still unclaimed at the time of purchase. An EV/$ of 0.72 means you'll get back about $0.72 on average for every $1 wagered. Any value above 1.00 indicates the ticket is statistically profitable at current prize levels.
Also called: EV per dollar, EV/$, expected value per dollar
Our quantitative models sum the dollar value of every remaining prize tier, weight each by its probability of being won on a single ticket, and divide the result by the cost of one ticket. The probability of winning a given prize is derived from the remaining-prize count and the total outstanding tickets — a figure we estimate from the state lottery's published overall odds and remaining-prize data. Because prize counts change daily as tickets are redeemed, EV/$ is recalculated with every data refresh.
EV/$ matters most late in a game's lifecycle, when a disproportionate share of lower-tier prizes have been claimed but top prizes remain. A game that launched at 0.65 EV/$ can cross 1.00 if the jackpot sits unclaimed long enough. Conversely, a game's EV/$ collapses when its top prize is claimed and the high-value numerator shrinks.
Example
A $20 game with 3 of 6 top prizes ($500K each) remaining and 65% of tickets sold. Our models calculate the current EV at roughly $20.80 per ticket — an EV/$ of 1.04. You are statistically expected to receive $1.04 for every $1 spent, making it a "+EV" play.
Yes. When a game has sold most of its tickets but its top prizes remain unclaimed, the expected return per remaining ticket can exceed the purchase price. Our surveillance system currently tracks all active US games and flags those above break-even in real time.
Across the roughly 9,400 active US scratch-off games we track, fewer than 2% show EV/$ ≥ 1.00 on any given day. These windows are short — they close when a jackpot is claimed or when a state ends the game.
Yes. Every time a prize is claimed, the remaining-prize pool shrinks and the denominator (outstanding tickets) also decreases. Whether EV/$ rises or falls depends on which tiers are being claimed fastest. EV/$ rises when low-value prizes are claimed disproportionately and top prizes linger.
Higher EV/$ means better expected return per dollar, but variance is also relevant. A $1 game at 0.95 EV/$ and a $30 game at 0.95 EV/$ have the same expected return rate, but the $30 game has higher absolute variance per ticket.
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