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TIRAGE GLOSSARY
By Tirage Analysis Desk · · 3 min · 🌟 featured-snippet target
Definition
Burn-down rate (also called daily drainage rate) is the percentage of a scratch-off game's remaining tickets that are sold each day, averaged over a recent trailing window. A burn-down rate of 0.40%/day means roughly 0.40% of remaining tickets are purchased each day.
Also called: burn-down rate, daily drainage rate, sell-through rate, daily drain
We compute burn-down rate from the slope of the % tickets remaining time series over the trailing 7-day window. Specifically: (pct_remaining[7 days ago] − pct_remaining[today]) / 7. Games with fewer than 7 days of data show an asterisk (*) indicating the estimate is preliminary. Burn-down rate feeds directly into our sell-out forecast model (P10/P50/P90 sellout dates).
Burn-down rate is critical for timing. A game with 20% tickets remaining and a 0.5%/day drain has roughly 40 days left at current pace — time to act. The same game at 0.1%/day has ~200 days, suggesting less urgency. Slow burn-down also means the +EV window stays open longer, which can be positive for patient buyers.
Example
A $20 Texas game has 18.5% of tickets remaining on May 14 and had 21.1% on May 7 — a 2.6 percentage-point drop over 7 days, or 0.37%/day. At this rate, P50 sellout is approximately 50 days away (early July).
Generally yes — burn-down rate correlates with retail velocity. Games in high-density retail states, recent TV ad campaigns, or holiday seasons show elevated burn-down rates.
Our P50 (median) forecast is accurate to within ±20% for games with 14+ days of history and stable burn-down rates. The P10/P90 band accounts for variability — a game's actual sell-out date falls within that band about 80% of the time.
It depends on which prizes are being claimed. If burn-down accelerates after a jackpot claim, EV/$ typically drops sharply. If it accelerates from a wave of low-value prize claims (e.g., $2 and $5 winners), EV/$ can rise slightly.
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