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TIRAGE GLOSSARY
By Tirage Analysis Desk · · 3 min · 🌟 featured-snippet target
Definition
Expected value (EV) is the probability-weighted average prize payout for a single scratch-off ticket, expressed in dollars. If a ticket has an EV of $17.50, you would statistically expect to receive $17.50 back on average if you purchased that ticket. EV is distinct from EV/$ — EV is the raw dollar figure, while EV/$ normalizes it by ticket price.
Also called: expected value, EV, statistical expected return, mathematical expectation
EV is computed by multiplying each prize amount by the probability of winning that prize on a single ticket, then summing across all prize tiers. The probability for each tier is derived from the remaining-prize count and the estimated number of outstanding tickets. Our models refresh this calculation with every data snapshot from state lottery feeds.
EV by itself is useful for comparing games of the same price. Use EV/$ when comparing games at different price points — a $5 game at $4.50 EV and a $20 game at $18 EV have the same EV/$, but the $20 game has higher variance (bigger swings per ticket).
Example
A $10 game with an EV of $8.40 returns $8.40 on average per ticket. Its EV/$ is 0.84 ($8.40 ÷ $10). A $20 game with an EV of $20.80 returns $20.80 on average per ticket. Its EV/$ is 1.04 — it is the better risk-adjusted play.
Expected value (EV) is the raw average payout in dollars. Expected value per dollar (EV/$) is EV divided by the ticket price, giving a price-normalized metric. EV/$ is better for cross-game comparison; EV is better for same-price comparison.
In dollar terms, EV is always positive (you always have a chance of winning something). But EV/$ is almost always below 1.00, meaning you statistically lose money on average. Values above 1.00 are the exception, not the norm.
No. Expected value is a long-run average across many tickets. On any single ticket you will win either nothing or a specific prize amount — rarely exactly the EV figure. The more tickets you buy, the closer your average outcome approaches the EV.
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