Methodology

How We Rank Scratch-Off Tickets

Tirage is an autonomous, multi-state surveillance system for North American scratch-off lotteries. Every morning it catalogues the prizes still unclaimed across thousands of active games, scores each one by expected value, and surfaces the strongest plays by state and price. This page explains how that works — and what it can and can't tell you.

1. Official data, sourced daily

Prize-remaining counts, ticket prices, and overall odds are sourced directly from each state and provincial lottery's official published data — the same figures the lottery shows on its own game pages. Our scanning infrastructure retrieves them once per day and timestamps every record, so you always know how fresh a number is.

We currently track 40+ jurisdictions across the US and Canada. The full provenance of every feed is listed on our data sources page. Tirage is independent and not affiliated with any lottery organization.

2. Expected value, the core signal

The headline metric on every game is expected value per dollar — a probability-weighted measure of what a ticket returns on average given the prizes still unclaimed. An EV/$ of 0.72 means a game statistically returns about 72¢ for every dollar spent. Values above 1.0 are rare and indicate a game that is, on paper, currently profitable — usually a late-lifecycle game whose top prizes remain largely unclaimed.

Expected value is recomputed daily as prizes are claimed and tickets sell through. It is one of several inputs into our broader quantitative models, alongside signals such as the prize pool ratio and burn-down rate.

3. Ranking and comparison

Because scratch-offs are state-licensed, the games you can actually buy depend on where you are. We rank games within each state and within each price tier, so a $5 ticket is compared against other $5 tickets — not against a $30 game with a structurally different payout. Each game also receives a national and in-state percentile rank so you can see how it stacks up against the full field.

4. When we don't show an estimate

Expected value requires enough published data to be meaningful — typically overall odds plus initial and remaining prize counts. When a lottery doesn't publish those inputs, we show the raw prize data without an EV figure rather than an estimate built on incomplete numbers. We would rather show less than show something misleading.

A note on chance

Expected value describes the long-run average across all remaining tickets — not the outcome of any single ticket. Scratch-offs are games of chance and every ticket can lose. Tirage is an analytical tool for comparing games on the data, not a prediction of results or a strategy to beat the lottery. Please play responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Frequently asked questions

How does Tirage rank scratch-off tickets?

Every active scratch-off we track is scored each day by expected value per dollar — a probability-weighted measure of what a ticket returns on average given the prizes still unclaimed. Games are then ranked within each state and price tier. Expected value is one of several inputs into our broader quantitative models.

Where does the prize data come from?

Remaining-prize counts, ticket prices, and overall odds are sourced directly from each state or provincial lottery's official published data — the same figures the lottery shows on its own game pages. We catalogue this data daily and never fabricate or estimate counts without attribution.

How often is the data updated?

Our scanning infrastructure retrieves fresh data from each lottery's official feed once per day, typically in the early morning. The 'last updated' timestamp on every state and game page reflects the most recent successful scan.

Why do some games not show an expected value?

Expected value can only be computed when a lottery publishes enough information — typically overall odds plus initial and remaining prize counts. When those inputs aren't available, we show the raw prize data rather than an estimate built on incomplete numbers.

Does a high expected value guarantee a win?

No. Expected value describes the long-run average across all remaining tickets, not the outcome of any single ticket. Scratch-offs are games of chance and every ticket can lose. Tirage is an analytical tool for comparing games, not a prediction of results.