TIRAGE GLOSSARY

What does "Claim vel." mean for a scratch-off?

By Tirage Analysis Desk · · 3 min · 🌟 featured-snippet target

Definition

Claim velocity measures how quickly top prizes are being redeemed over time — typically expressed as the average number of days between successive top-prize claims. A claim velocity of 14 days means a new top prize is redeemed approximately every two weeks.

Also called: claim velocity, prize claim rate, redemption rate, top-prize claim cadence

How it's calculated

We track each individual top-prize claim event (date and location, where published by the state lottery) and compute the mean gap in days between consecutive claims. For states that publish real-time claim data (TX, NY, FL, NC, PA), this is computed from the actual claim log. For other states, we infer velocity from daily prize-count changes.

When it matters

Claim velocity matters most when the remaining top-prize count is low. If a game has 1 top prize remaining and claim velocity has been 10 days/claim historically, there is statistical reason to expect the last prize to be claimed within the next 1–3 claim cycles. A game that is 'statistically due' for a claim is flagged in our Roll Tracker.

Example

A FL $30 game shows 5 claims over the past 90 days — one every 18 days on average. With 1 top prize remaining and the last claim 22 days ago, it is past its average gap and may be "due." This is a probabilistic signal, not a guarantee.

People also ask

Is a game really 'due' for a jackpot claim?+

From a pure probability standpoint, no — each ticket is an independent draw and past claims do not affect future probabilities. However, claim velocity does provide a useful baseline for how fast tickets in this game are circulating and being scratched in aggregate.

Which states publish claim location data?+

Texas, New York, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania publish top-prize claim data that includes redemption date and retailer location. Other states confirm claims have occurred only through the prize-count decrement visible in our daily snapshots.

See this metric live in the game browser →