Million Dollar Loteria#2653
Texas· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.77
USA percentile
86th
of 2,201 games
Top prizes left
1
$1,000,000 tier
% sold-through
94%
2026-11-04
Forecast sellout
~88d
P10–P90: 62–123d
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Million Dollar Loteria is a $20 scratch-off game from the Texas lottery (game #2653). As of the most recent daily scan, 1 top prize of $1M remains unclaimed, with roughly 94% of tickets sold, as published by the Texas lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.29. Our models put its expected value at 0.77 per dollar, returning about $0.77 per dollar on average at current prize levels, the best of 17 $20 games on sale in Texas.
THE THESIS
At 0.77 EV/$, this game ranks 1 of 17 same-price games on sale in Texas (median 0.75).
- 1.10% of $1.0M prizes still unclaimed at 94% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Current daily drainage rate is 7.00% of remaining tickets — projected sellout in ~88 days at this pace.
- 3.Ranks in the 86th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
13 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $22.88M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,201 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active TX games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionDaily drainage
~7.00% / day
Days left (P50)
88 days
P10 / P90 range
62–123 d
EV at P50 sellout
0.77
Claim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersClaim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.
Price vs EV — TX field
109 games · break-even highlightedNo other active TX games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
Million Dollar Loteria (#2653): prizes, value and pace
As of November 4, 2026, 1 of the 10 $1,000,000 top prizes is still unclaimed; across the 13 prize levels the lottery reports, 454,541 of 7,363,689 prizes (6%) remain; the thinnest level is $50, with 6% of its prizes left.
At current prize levels a $20 ticket returns about $15.31 on average (0.77 per dollar), which ranks 1 of 17 $20 games on sale in Texas, above the $20 median of 0.75. Among every Texas game with a computable value it is 11 of 109; nationally it sits in the 86th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 160,566 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, none of them a top prize; at the current pace the remaining tickets would sell out in about 88 days (likely range 62–123).
Texas also sells another issue of Million Dollar Loteria: game #2764. Each issue has its own print run and prize pool, so their odds and remaining prizes differ.
Figures come from the prize data the Texas lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the November 4, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN TX
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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a TX game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.