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500X Loteria Spectacular
Texas· scanned yesterday
EV / Dollar
0.78
USA percentile
90th
of 1,870 games
Top prizes left
2
$3,000,000 tier
% sold-through
54%
2026-06-21
Forecast sellout
~225d
P10–P90: 158–315d
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
500X Loteria Spectacular is a $50 scratch-off game from the Texas (game #2659). As of the most recent daily scan, 2 top prizes of $3M remain unclaimed, with roughly 54% of tickets sold, as published by the Texas. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.21. Our models put its expected value at 0.78 per dollar, among the stronger plays in its price tier, returning about $0.78 per dollar on average at current prize levels.
THE THESIS
At 0.78 EV/$, this game offers above-average expected return relative to its price tier, with meaningful prize coverage remaining.
- 1.50% of $3.0M prizes still unclaimed at 54% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Current daily drainage rate is 20.50% of remaining tickets — projected sellout in ~225 days at this pace.
- 3.Ranks in the 90th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
13 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $145.15M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 1,870 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active TX games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionDaily drainage
~20.50% / day
Days left (P50)
225 days
P10 / P90 range
158–315 d
EV at P50 sellout
0.78
Claim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersClaim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.
Price vs EV — TX field
79 games · break-even highlightedNo other active TX games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN TX
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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal