What expected value means
Expected value (EV) is the average outcome you'd get if you could play the same situation many times. For a scratch-off, it's the average payout per ticket given the prizes still available. Expressed per dollar spent — 'EV per dollar' — it becomes directly comparable across games of different prices.
An EV per dollar of 0.72 means that, on average, you get back about 72 cents for every dollar spent. The gap below 1.00 is the house edge. A value above 1.00 means the remaining tickets are, on average, worth more than they cost — a statistically profitable situation.
Why it beats looking at odds alone
Overall odds tell you how often you win; prize amounts tell you how much; remaining counts tell you what's left. Expected value combines all three into one number, which is why it's the cleanest way to compare games. A game can have unremarkable odds but strong EV if a large jackpot remains unclaimed late in its life.
Because the remaining prize pool changes daily, EV changes daily too. We recompute it on every data refresh for every game where the lottery publishes enough information to support an honest estimate.
When EV crosses 1.00
Occasionally a game's EV per dollar climbs above 1.00. This happens when most tickets have sold but the top prizes remain on the board, concentrating the remaining value into fewer tickets. It's genuinely rare — a small fraction of active games on any given day — and the window usually closes fast when a jackpot is claimed or the game is retired.
An EV above 1.00 does not guarantee a win on any single ticket. It describes the long-run average across all remaining tickets, not the outcome of the one you buy. Variance still dominates a single purchase.
How to use EV without doing math
You don't need to calculate anything. Pick your price point, then choose the game with the highest EV per dollar at that price in your state. Our rankings surface this automatically, and flag the rare games sitting above break-even. When a state doesn't publish enough data to compute EV honestly, we show the raw prize data instead of guessing.