Carnival Cash
Washington· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.66
USA percentile
48th
of 2,201 games
Top prizes left
2
$50,000 tier
% sold-through
55%
2026-11-04
Forecast sellout
~390d
P10–P90: 273–546d
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Carnival Cash is a $5 scratch-off game from the Washington lottery (game #1957). As of the most recent daily scan, 2 top prizes of $50,000 remain unclaimed, with roughly 55% of tickets sold, as published by the Washington lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.33. Our models put its expected value at 0.66 per dollar, returning about $0.66 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 6 of 21 $5 games on sale in Washington.
THE THESIS
At 0.66 EV/$, this game ranks 6 of 21 same-price games on sale in Washington (median 0.65).
- 1.50% of $50,000 prizes still unclaimed at 55% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Current daily drainage rate is 11.67% of remaining tickets — projected sellout in ~390 days at this pace.
- 3.Ranks in the 48th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
11 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $3.27M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,201 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active WA games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionDaily drainage
~11.67% / day
Days left (P50)
390 days
P10 / P90 range
273–546 d
EV at P50 sellout
0.66
Claim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersClaim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.
Price vs EV — WA field
81 games · break-even highlightedNo other active WA games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
Carnival Cash: prizes, value and pace
As of November 4, 2026, 2 of the 4 $50,000 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 11 prize levels the lottery reports, 295,721 of 650,138 prizes (45%) remain; the thinnest level is $100, with 43% of its prizes left.
At current prize levels a $5 ticket returns about $3.32 on average (0.66 per dollar), which ranks 6 of 21 $5 games on sale in Washington, above the $5 median of 0.65. Among every Washington game with a computable value it is 35 of 81; nationally it sits in the 48th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 25,316 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, none of them a top prize; at the current pace the remaining tickets would sell out in about 390 days (likely range 273–546).
Figures come from the prize data the Washington lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the November 4, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN WA
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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a WA game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.