Holiday Countdown
Texas· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.58
USA percentile
15th
of 2,154 games
Top prizes left
—
$100,000 tier
% sold-through
0%
2026-10-25
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Holiday Countdown is a $5 scratch-off game from the Texas lottery (game #2780). Roughly 0% of this game's tickets have sold through to date. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.89. Our models put its expected value at 0.58 per dollar, returning about $0.58 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 21 of 21 $5 games on sale in Texas.
THE THESIS
At 0.58 EV/$, this game ranks 21 of 21 same-price games on sale in Texas (median 0.66).
- 1.0% of tickets sold through so far.
- 2.Ranks in the 15th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
10 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $18.09M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,154 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active TX games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionInsufficient historical data for sellout projection.
Claim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersPrice vs EV — TX field
105 games · break-even highlightedNo other active TX games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
Holiday Countdown: prizes, value and pace
As of October 25, 2026, across the 5 prize levels the lottery reports, 1,574,144 of 1,574,164 prizes (100%) remain.
At current prize levels a $5 ticket returns about $2.92 on average (0.58 per dollar), which ranks 21 of 21 $5 games on sale in Texas, below the $5 median of 0.66. Among every Texas game with a computable value it is 99 of 105; nationally it sits in the 15th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Figures come from the prize data the Texas lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the October 25, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN TX
If you like this game, look at these
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a TX game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.