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$500,000 MATCH TO WIN
New York· Launched Jun 2025· 428 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.54
USA percentile
7th
of 2,022 games
Top prizes left
0
$500,000 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-08-05
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
$500,000 MATCH TO WIN is a $5 scratch-off game from the New York (game #1658). It launched in June 2025. As of the most recent daily scan, 0 top prizes of $500 remain unclaimed, as published by the New York. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 4.16. Our models put its expected value at 0.54 per dollar, among the stronger plays in its price tier, returning about $0.54 per dollar on average at current prize levels.
THE THESIS
At 0.54 EV/$, this game offers above-average expected return relative to its price tier, with meaningful prize coverage remaining.
- 1.Ranks in the 7th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
10 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $934,125 — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,022 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active NY games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersClaim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.
Price vs EV — NY field
121 games · break-even highlightedNo other active NY games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN NY
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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal