$500,000 MATCH TO WIN
New York· Launched Jun 2025· 519 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.54
USA percentile
7th
of 2,201 games
Top prizes left
0
$500,000 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-11-04
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
$500,000 MATCH TO WIN is a $5 scratch-off game from the New York lottery (game #1658). It launched in June 2025. As of the most recent daily scan, 0 top prizes of $500,000 remain unclaimed, as published by the New York lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 4.16. Our models put its expected value at 0.54 per dollar, returning about $0.54 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 26 of 30 $5 games on sale in New York.
THE THESIS
At 0.54 EV/$, this game ranks 26 of 30 same-price games on sale in New York (median 0.62).
- 1.Ranks in the 7th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
10 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $911,165 — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,201 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active NY games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersClaim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.
Price vs EV — NY field
131 games · break-even highlightedNo other active NY games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
$500,000 MATCH TO WIN: prizes, value and pace
As of November 4, 2026, 0 of the 3 $500,000 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 10 prize levels the lottery reports, 81,158 of 1,435,606 prizes (6%) remain; every $500,000 prize has already been claimed.
At current prize levels a $5 ticket returns about $2.7 on average (0.54 per dollar), which ranks 26 of 30 $5 games on sale in New York, below the $5 median of 0.62. Among every New York game with a computable value it is 114 of 131; nationally it sits in the 7th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 583 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, none of them a top prize.
Figures come from the prize data the New York lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the November 4, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN NY
If you like this game, look at these
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a NY game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.