New Jersey· Launched Jul 2025· 460 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.64
USA percentile
37th
of 2,159 games
Top prizes left
2
$10,000 tier
% sold-through
68%
2026-10-26
Forecast sellout
~223d
P10–P90: 156–312d
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Birthday Surprise is a $2 scratch-off game from the New Jersey lottery (game #1904). It launched in July 2025. As of the most recent daily scan, 2 top prizes of $10,000 remain unclaimed, with roughly 68% of tickets sold, as published by the New Jersey lottery. Our models put its expected value at 0.64 per dollar, returning about $0.64 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 8 of 22 $2 games on sale in New Jersey.
THE THESIS
At 0.64 EV/$, this game ranks 8 of 22 same-price games on sale in New Jersey (median 0.63).
Total unclaimed prize value: $1.33M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
Where this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active NJ games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Daily drainage
~14.33% / day
Days left (P50)
223 days
P10 / P90 range
156–312 d
EV at P50 sellout
0.64
Claim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.
No other active NJ games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
As of October 26, 2026, 2 of the 3 $10,000 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 10 prize levels the lottery reports, 192,055 of 616,555 prizes (31%) remain; the thinnest level is $100, with 26% of its prizes left.
At current prize levels a $2 ticket returns about $1.28 on average (0.64 per dollar), which ranks 8 of 22 $2 games on sale in New Jersey, above the $2 median of 0.63. Among every New Jersey game with a computable value it is 92 of 142; nationally it sits in the 37th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 26,532 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, none of them a top prize; at the current pace the remaining tickets would sell out in about 223 days (likely range 156–312).
New Jersey also sells another issue of Birthday Surprise: game #1825. Each issue has its own print run and prize pool, so their odds and remaining prizes differ.
Figures come from the prize data the New Jersey lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the October 26, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN NJ
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
We alert you the day a NJ game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.