Win $100, $200 or $500#654
Michigan· Launched Jul 2024· 847 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.77
USA percentile
87th
of 2,159 games
Top prizes left
3315
$500 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-10-26
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Win $100, $200 or $500 is a $20 scratch-off game from the Michigan lottery (game #654). It launched in July 2024. As of the most recent daily scan, 3315 top prizes of $500 remain unclaimed, as published by the Michigan lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 8.11. Our models put its expected value at 0.77 per dollar, returning about $0.77 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 15 of 17 $20 games on sale in Michigan.
THE THESIS
At 0.77 EV/$, this game ranks 15 of 17 same-price games on sale in Michigan (median 0.80).
- 1.14% of $500 prizes still unclaimed at ??% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Ranks in the 87th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
3 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $19.72M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,159 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active MI games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersTrailing 7-day claim rate 50% below the 30-day mean — activity slowing.
Price vs EV — MI field
126 games · break-even highlighted2 other MI games above break-even at this time.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
Win $100, $200 or $500 (#654): prizes, value and pace
As of October 26, 2026, 3315 of the 23,443 $500 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 3 prize levels the lottery reports, 157,618 of 1,087,042 prizes (14%) remain; the thinnest level is $500, with 14% of its prizes left.
At current prize levels a $20 ticket returns about $15.43 on average (0.77 per dollar), which ranks 15 of 17 $20 games on sale in Michigan, below the $20 median of 0.80. Among every Michigan game with a computable value it is 41 of 126; nationally it sits in the 87th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 21 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, including 1 top prize.
Michigan also sells another issue of Win $100, $200 or $500: game #713. Each issue has its own print run and prize pool, so their odds and remaining prizes differ.
Figures come from the prize data the Michigan lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the October 26, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN MI
If you like this game, look at these
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a MI game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.