Smokin' Hot Million
Michigan· Launched May 2025· 547 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.78
USA percentile
89th
of 2,201 games
Top prizes left
2
$1,000,000 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-11-04
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Smokin' Hot Million is a $10 scratch-off game from the Michigan lottery (game #703). It launched in May 2025. As of the most recent daily scan, 2 top prizes of $1M remain unclaimed, as published by the Michigan lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.77. Our models put its expected value at 0.78 per dollar, returning about $0.78 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 5 of 26 $10 games on sale in Michigan.
THE THESIS
At 0.78 EV/$, this game ranks 5 of 26 same-price games on sale in Michigan (median 0.77).
- 1.67% of $1.0M prizes still unclaimed at ??% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Ranks in the 89th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
9 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $25.96M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,201 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active MI games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersTrailing 7-day claim rate 34% below the 30-day mean — activity slowing.
Price vs EV — MI field
131 games · break-even highlighted2 other MI games above break-even at this time.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
Smokin' Hot Million: prizes, value and pace
As of November 4, 2026, 2 of the 3 $1,000,000 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 9 prize levels the lottery reports, 887,241 of 1,624,006 prizes (55%) remain; the thinnest level is $10,000, with 48% of its prizes left.
At current prize levels a $10 ticket returns about $7.76 on average (0.78 per dollar), which ranks 5 of 26 $10 games on sale in Michigan, above the $10 median of 0.77. Among every Michigan game with a computable value it is 33 of 131; nationally it sits in the 89th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 383 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, none of them a top prize.
Figures come from the prize data the Michigan lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the November 4, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN MI
If you like this game, look at these
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a MI game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.