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$500,000 Winter Ice
Michigan· Launched Dec 2023· 974 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.70
USA percentile
63th
of 2,022 games
Top prizes left
1
$500,000 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-08-05
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
$500,000 Winter Ice is a $5 scratch-off game from the Michigan (game #615). It launched in December 2023. As of the most recent daily scan, 1 top prize of $500 remains unclaimed, as published by the Michigan. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 4.05. Our models put its expected value at 0.70 per dollar, among the stronger plays in its price tier, returning about $0.70 per dollar on average at current prize levels.
THE THESIS
At 0.70 EV/$, this game offers above-average expected return relative to its price tier, with meaningful prize coverage remaining.
- 1.50% of $500,000 prizes still unclaimed at ??% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Ranks in the 63rd percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
8 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $5.24M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,022 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active MI games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersTrailing 7-day claim rate 26% below the 30-day mean — activity slowing.
Price vs EV — MI field
118 games · break-even highlighted2 other MI games above break-even at this time.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN MI
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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal