$500 Inferno
Michigan· Launched Jan 2026· 302 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.69
USA percentile
61th
of 2,201 games
Top prizes left
15852
$500 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-11-04
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
$500 Inferno is a $5 scratch-off game from the Michigan lottery (game #697). It launched in January 2026. As of the most recent daily scan, 15852 top prizes of $500 remain unclaimed, as published by the Michigan lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 4.10. Our models put its expected value at 0.69 per dollar, returning about $0.69 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 26 of 31 $5 games on sale in Michigan.
THE THESIS
At 0.69 EV/$, this game ranks 26 of 31 same-price games on sale in Michigan (median 0.70).
- 1.60% of $500 prizes still unclaimed at ??% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Ranks in the 61st percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
6 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $18.24M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,201 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active MI games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersTrailing 7-day claim rate 22% below the 30-day mean — activity slowing.
Price vs EV — MI field
131 games · break-even highlighted2 other MI games above break-even at this time.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
$500 Inferno: prizes, value and pace
As of November 4, 2026, 15852 of the 26,622 $500 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 6 prize levels the lottery reports, 1,280,983 of 2,119,041 prizes (60%) remain.
At current prize levels a $5 ticket returns about $3.47 on average (0.69 per dollar), which ranks 26 of 31 $5 games on sale in Michigan, below the $5 median of 0.70. Among every Michigan game with a computable value it is 93 of 131; nationally it sits in the 61th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Over the last 30 days, 15,673 prizes were claimed across the reported levels, including 207 top prizes.
Figures come from the prize data the Michigan lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the November 4, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN MI
If you like this game, look at these
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a MI game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.