Polar Payout
California· Launched Oct 2026· 6 days on shelf· scanned today
EV / Dollar
0.73
USA percentile
75th
of 2,154 games
Top prizes left
4
$1,000,000 tier
% sold-through
—
2026-10-25
Forecast sellout
—
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Polar Payout is a $10 scratch-off game from the California lottery (game #1752). It launched in October 2026. As of the most recent daily scan, 4 top prizes of $1M remain unclaimed, as published by the California lottery. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.61. Our models put its expected value at 0.73 per dollar, returning about $0.73 per dollar on average at current prize levels, number 7 of 10 $10 games on sale in California.
THE THESIS
At 0.73 EV/$, this game ranks 7 of 10 same-price games on sale in California (median 0.74).
- 1.100% of $1.0M prizes still unclaimed at ??% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
- 2.Ranks in the 75th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
10 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $84.13M — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,154 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active CA games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionClaim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersPrice vs EV — CA field
80 games · break-even highlightedNo other active CA games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
ABOUT THIS GAME
Polar Payout: prizes, value and pace
As of October 25, 2026, 4 of the 4 $1,000,000 top prizes are still unclaimed; across the 10 prize levels the lottery reports, 3,186,712 of 3,320,251 prizes (96%) remain.
At current prize levels a $10 ticket returns about $7.31 on average (0.73 per dollar), which ranks 7 of 10 $10 games on sale in California, below the $10 median of 0.74. Among every California game with a computable value it is 32 of 80; nationally it sits in the 75th percentile. Like nearly every scratch-off, it pays back less than it costs on average.
Figures come from the prize data the California lottery publishes (official game page), which Tirage checks daily; this page reflects the October 25, 2026 update. See how we calculate value.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN CA
If you like this game, look at these
Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal
Know when this one turns
We alert you the day a CA game crosses break-even, and send a weekly digest of what moved.