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Mistle Toads
Oklahoma· Launched Oct 2025· 286 days on shelf· scanned 62d ago
EV / Dollar
0.51
USA percentile
4th
of 2,022 games
Top prizes left
0
$3,000 tier
% sold-through
71%
2026-06-04
Forecast sellout
~4371d
P10–P90: 3060–6119d
18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.
Mistle Toads is a $1 scratch-off game from the Oklahoma (game #807). It launched in October 2025. As of the most recent daily scan, 0 top prizes of $3 remain unclaimed, with roughly 71% of tickets sold, as published by the Oklahoma. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.85. Our models put its expected value at 0.51 per dollar, among the stronger plays in its price tier, returning about $0.51 per dollar on average at current prize levels.
THE THESIS
At 0.51 EV/$, this game offers above-average expected return relative to its price tier, with meaningful prize coverage remaining.
- 1.Current daily drainage rate is 0.67% of remaining tickets — projected sellout in ~4371 days at this pace.
- 2.Ranks in the 4th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Prize ladder
11 tiers · % remainingTotal unclaimed prize value: $149,767 — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.
EV percentile · USA + state
vs 2,022 active gamesWhere this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active OK games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.
Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining
historical + P50 projectionDaily drainage
~0.67% / day
Days left (P50)
4371 days
P10 / P90 range
3060–6119 d
EV at P50 sellout
0.51
Claim heat · 30-day strip
claims per day, all tiersPrice vs EV — OK field
64 games · break-even highlightedNo other active OK games currently clear break-even.
Top-prize claim cadence · the roll
Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.
States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.
SIMILAR PLAYS IN OK
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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal