AR · #845 · $5

$500 Loaded

Arkansas· Launched Jun 2025· 428 days on shelf· scanned today

Lottery site

EV / Dollar

0.56

USA percentile

9th

of 2,022 games

Top prizes left

106

$500 tier

% sold-through

2026-08-05

Forecast sellout

18+ only. For entertainment purposes — not financial advice. Scratch-offs have a negative expected return on average. 1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.

$500 Loaded is a $5 scratch-off game from the Arkansas (game #845). It launched in June 2025. As of the most recent daily scan, 106 top prizes of $500 remain unclaimed, as published by the Arkansas. Overall odds of winning any prize are 1 in 3.84. Our models put its expected value at 0.56 per dollar, among the stronger plays in its price tier, returning about $0.56 per dollar on average at current prize levels.

THE THESIS

At 0.56 EV/$, this game offers above-average expected return relative to its price tier, with meaningful prize coverage remaining.

  1. 1.2% of $500 prizes still unclaimed at ??% sell-through — the top tier has not burned out.
  2. 2.Ranks in the 9th percentile of all active US scratch-off games by expected value per dollar.
Read the full case ↓

Prize ladder

6 tiers · % remaining
$500
106/4.4K
2%
$100
5/273
$50
475/18.5K
$20
1.3K/43.3K
$10
10.0K/274.1K
$5
13.5K/223.4K

Total unclaimed prize value: $269,775 — weighted to top-tier prizes as of latest data feed.

EV percentile · USA + state

vs 2,022 active games

Where this game ranks versus all active US scratch-offs (USA) and all active AR games (state). Better means more unclaimed prize value relative to remaining tickets.

USA median · 50th0.67 EV/$
AR median0.70 EV/$
YOU · 9th
USA: 9th percentileAR: 3th percentile

Burn-down forecast · % tickets remaining

historical + P50 projection
Not enough historical data to render chart.

Claim heat · 30-day strip

claims per day, all tiers
30d ago15dlast 7d · -7%

Claim velocity is consistent with the 30-day mean.

Price vs EV — AR field

77 games · break-even highlighted
$0$6$12$220.000.250.500.99YOU

No other active AR games currently clear break-even.

Top-prize claim cadence · the roll

Top-prize claim history is not published for this state.

States that report individual claim events (TX, NY, PA, FL, NC) will show a full timeline here. This game's state does not currently publish that data.

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Same state · same price tier · similar EV signal